Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations
研究存在生产外部性导致多重稳态的经济模型中的波动与政策，发现生产率冲击和政策变化可在不同均衡间转移经济，产生内生波动，且政策具有滞后效应和阈值效应。
This paper considers fluctuations and policy in an economic model with multiple steady states due to a production externality. In the absence of policy changes, the driving forces generating fluctuations are exogenous random productivity shocks. However, because there are multiple steady states, large productivity shocks can shift the economy between high-and low- level equilibria, providing an additional endogenous source of fluctuations. The scope for macroeconomic policy is large since changes in policy can also shift the economy between equilibria. In this setting macroeconomic policy exhibits hysteresis (irreversibilities) and threshold effects and can be used to eliminate endogenous fluctuations.