The distributional effects of NAFTA in Mexico
利用墨西哥市级面板数据和空间计量方法，研究北美自由贸易协定对经济活动空间分布的影响，发现其加剧了边境富裕地区与其他地区的差距，但也促进了低教育、低基础设施地区的增长。
This paper studies the regional distribution of benefits from trade in Mexico after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Specifically, we ask whether or not NAFTA increased the concentration of economic activity in Mexico. Unlike previous work which uses state-level data, we identify the effect of NAFTA on economic activity at the municipal level allowing us to observe detailed growth patterns across space. To explicitly identify the effect of the trade agreement, we contrast changes in economic activity in regions and sectors more and less likely to be affected by trade. Given the spatial nature of these data, we make use of spatial panel econometric methods. We find that NAFTA caused wealthy regions nearest to the border to grow faster than others, increasing regional disparity. We also find that economic activity in densely populated regions grew less quickly after NAFTA, particularly in the case of traded sectors. Thus, we see evidence that agglomeration lost some of its draw after NAFTA. We also find that regions with a smaller portion of high-school graduates and lower levels of infrastructure saw their growth increase after the trade agreement, decreasing regional disparity. We notice these redistributive effects are strongest in the non-traded sectors.