Monetary Growth and the Long-Run Rate of Inflation
从货币主义视角论证，当前全球通胀源于货币供给过度扩张，主张将货币增长率降至充分就业产出增长率并长期维持，以实现价格稳定。
Arthur Okun invited me to join this panel, one presumes, to present a monetarist view of inflation. This I shall do. In my judgment the current worldwide inflWtion, like virtually all of its predecessors throughout history, stems from excessive expansion of the money supply. I believe that this could have been prevented, at least in the United States, without either loss of jobs in the long run or danger of financial collapse. The only hope of restoring reasonable price stability is to cut monetary growth to the rate of growth of full employment output and to hold it there indefinitely. Implementing such a policy will not be easy but it is our only hope. Most recent literature on inflation suffers from two serious faults: it fails to examine the problem in a sufficiently long-term perspective and it takes inadequate account of delays between causal disturbances and inflationary consequences. On the first point, most writers on inflation are preoccupied with ephemeral symptoms or temporary disturbances. Events such as a rise in the minimum wage, a poor corn crop, the formation of an international oil cartel, devaluation of the dollar vis-a-vis other major currencies -the list could on and on are capable of moving the inflation indicators upward, at least temporarily. However, such alleged causes of inflation operate only sporadically; they cannot explain a sustained rise in prices. One could write a history of inflation that would explain it as a series of unrelated accidents. As social