Did the United States Transmit the Great Depression to the Rest of the World
质疑美国将大萧条传播到世界其他地区的普遍观点，通过评估弗里德曼和施瓦茨的论点与数据的吻合程度，指出其描述虽直观但缺乏数据支持。
This paper challenges the commonly held belief that the Great Depression was transmitted from the United States to the rest of the world. The well-known argument by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz (1963) is used as the reference point. I argue that their description, although intuitively plausible, does not correspond well with the data. During the depression years and afterwards there was an extensive analysis of the international financial situation. A comprehensive analysis was provided by Ragnar Nurkse (1944). Earlier writings do not in particular indict the United States, but rather also blame France and several other countries for the financial crisis.' Recent literature that deemphasize the role of the United States include Peter Temin (1976) and Knut Borchardt (1982). Friedman and Schwartz do not get into any lengthy international analysis, yet draw far-reaching conclusions about the United States and the rest of the world. This paper does not attempt to estimate the relative roles of French gold accumulations, the illiquidity of loans to Germany, the Austrian banking crisis, the British devaluation, etc. Rather the analysis is confined to evaluating whether the United States transmitted the depression to the rest of the world through the channels discussed by Friedman and Schwartz. I. The Friedman-Schwartz Argument, and How It Can Be Evaluated