Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses
认为国内社会冲突是理解增长缺乏持续性以及1970年代中期后许多国家增长崩溃的关键，并强调冲突与外部冲击及国内冲突管理制度的相互作用。
This paper argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse after the mid-1970s. It emphasizes conflicts interact with external shocks on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).