Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain
构建了一个计量模型，通过加入儿童津贴、实际房价、女性队列规模等新变量，并采用协整技术处理非平稳数据，来估计1950年以来英国出生率的年度波动。
The author presents an econometric model to estimate annual fluctuations in the birth rate in the United Kingdom since 1950. The new model has been improved by (1) adding additional economic variables to the model particularly child allowances real house prices and following Easterlin (1980) womens cohort size; (2) using mens and womens net (after tax) wages rather than gross wages; and (3) employing econometric techniques developed from the theory of cointegrated series to deal with the nonstationarity of most of the data. (EXCERPT)