A Reconsideration of Import Substitution
研究了进口替代发展战略的起源、后果及失败原因，指出其阻碍本土社会学习，并批评外向型战略忽视国家角色，提出有效战略应保护国内学习而不惩罚出口。
This paper studies the origins of an import substitution strategy of development, summarizes the consequences of that strategy, and reviews the problems that led to its failure. The fundamental difficulty was its discouragement of the indigenous social learning necessary for sustained, independent development. The emergence of an outward-oriented, minimal-government strategy is due to the success of Korea and Taiwan. This strategy fails to recognize that social learning requires a strong role for national agents and that this role can be penalized by undue openness. An effective strategy must protect and induce domestic learning without penalizing exporting.