Fiscal Trends in Real Economic Aggregates
用协整分析检验财政变量是否独立驱动消费-产出比和休闲-劳动比的长期趋势，结果支持财政趋势的存在，并表明包含财政趋势的新古典增长模型比简单真实商业周期模型更符合数据。
Using cointegration analysis, the authors examine long-term interactions between fiscal variables and the consumption-output and leisure-labor ratios. The motivation is to test if fiscal trends are an independent source of stochastic trends underlying the long-run behavior of real economic aggregates. The authors' results support the presence of fiscal trends and can be interpreted quite well in terms of the equilibrium approach to fiscal policy. They suggest that neoclassical growth models that embed fiscal trends and distinguish between components of government purchases are more consistent with the data than simple real-business-cycle models. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.