Time Series Evidence Bearing on Crude Theories of Regional Growth
用格兰杰因果检验测试了出口基础理论和集聚经济理论对区域收入增长的解释力，发现数据不支持这两种理论，质疑了相关实证研究的可靠性。
The process of verification of theory (economic or otherwise) is multi-faceted, but in any empirical science that process must include an attempt to confront hypotheses deduced from the theoretical structure with observed events. Lacking empirical evidence of this kind, we may fail by accepting or rejecting theory on the basis of the compatibility of its structure with our (subjective) perception of what constitutes a sufficient description of reality. This paper is an attempt to test two crude theoretical structures of regional income determination.1 The structures take the form of income dichotomies and focus on the role of export activity (the export base) and agglomeration economies in regional growth. Historically each has been held by some to be a fundamental causal agent in that process. In the particular case of export base theory, the hypothesis examined is central to the value of multiplier analysis used in that context. More generally, both theories continue to play roles in the development of larger econometric structures of regional activity. The results of this paper, obtained from an application of the Granger causality test, show that neither theory is supported by the data it requires for verification. These results provide strong evidence that the explanatory power of empirical efforts relying on these structures is subject to serious doubt. II. TWO THEORIES