A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84
用非参数方法检验1981-84年英镑兑美元汇率是否存在投机泡沫，发现持有英镑资产相对美元资产存在负泡沫，并讨论了理性泡沫、非对称基本面和非理性预期等解释。
The U.S. dollar price of the U.K. pound sterling is tested for a speculative bubble, defined as a period with a nonzero median in excessreturns. A nonparametric procedure is developed, which controls for data mining over the period of flexible exchange rates, and finds a negative bubble in the excess return to holding sterling rather than dollar assets during the period 1981-84. Possible interpretations arebootstrap equilibria (rational bubbles), nonsym-metric fundamentals, and nonrational expectations. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.