DO HOUSE PRICES DRIVE CONSUMPTION GROWTH? THE COINCIDENT CYCLES OF HOUSE PRICES AND CONSUMPTION IN THE UK
通过构建包含消费和住房决策的结构生命周期模型，利用英国30多年的数据模拟房价和收入冲击对消费的影响，发现房价冲击对老年家庭消费影响更大，收入冲击对年轻家庭影响更大。
This paper uses a realistic structural lifecycle model of consumption and housing decisions to understand how data might distinguish different mechanisms that explain the correlation between house prices and consumption. The model includes price and earnings shocks estimated from data (the latter including aggregate and idiosyncratic components), and incorporates realistic features of the UK mortgage market. We simulate the model using more than 30 years of realized shocks and under counterfactual scenarios. Our results confirm the intuition of earlier studies: house price shocks should have a larger effect on the consumption of older households and earnings shocks on young households.