Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market
分析爱荷华政治股票市场的数据，发现该市场在预测1988年总统选举结果方面优于民意调查，即使交易者存在判断偏差，但边际交易者无偏差使市场有效聚合信息。
Results from the Iowa Political Stock Market are analyzed to ascertain how well markets work as aggregators of information. The authors find that the market worked extremely well, dominating opinion polls in forecasting the outcome of the 1988 presidential election, even though traders in the market exhibited substantial amounts of judgment biases. Their explanation is that judgment bias refers to average behavior, while in markets it is marginal traders who influence price. They present evidence that in this market a sufficient number of traders were free of judgment bias so that the market was able to work well. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.