Making sense of overconfidence in market entry
通过两个实验室实验和一个档案研究，区分了不同类型的过度自信，发现市场进入更多由相对技能自信驱动，而非绝对技能自信。
Entrepreneurs are often described as overconfident (or at least very confident), even when entering difficult markets. However, recent laboratory findings suggest that difficult tasks tend to produce underconfidence. How do entrepreneurs maintain confidence in difficult tasks? Our two laboratory experiments and one archival study reconcile the literature by distinguishing types of overconfidence and identifying what type is most prominent in each type of task. Furthermore, we critically examine the notion that ‘overconfidence’ explains excess market entry: we find that entry into different markets is not driven by confidence in one's own absolute skill, but by confidence in one's skill relative to that of others. Finally, we consider whether overconfidence in relative skill is driven by neglecting competitors or by systematic errors made when considering them . Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.