Using a 'Hybrid' Approach to Model Oil and Gas Supply: A Case Study of the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf
开发了一种混合模型，结合经济计量与地质工程方法，预测墨西哥湾外大陆架至2000年的油气供应，对能源政策制定者和资源管理者有参考价值。
"Hybrid" models of oil and gas supply combine an econometric model of exploration activity with a geologic/engineering model of the discovery process. The advantages of such models over either purely econometric or purely geologic/engineering approaches are their recognition of the regularities in the discovery process, their use of historical data to test the implications of the models, and their ability to generate time series forecasts without incorporating ad hoc constraints. A hybrid model of oil and gas supply on the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf is developed and used to forecast future supplies to the year 2000.