A nonlinear approach to US GNP
估计了一个美国GNP的单变量非线性模型，该模型在多个标准上优于标准线性模型，并揭示了冲击对商业周期的不对称效应，特别是表明二战后美国经济比战前更稳定。
Abstract A univariate nonlinear model is estimated for US GNP that on many criteria outperforms standard linear models. The estimated model is of the threshold autoregressive type and contains evidence of asymmetric effects of shocks over the business cycle. In particular the nonlinear model suggests that the post‐1945 US economy is significantly more stable than the pre‐1945 US economy.