A Closer Look at the Employment Cost Index
比较了就业成本指数与其他劳动力成本指标，发现它虽不擅长预测整体通胀，但在分析劳动力市场趋势和企业薪酬决策中很有价值。
Labor costs have recently come under scrutiny by policymakers, business economists, and financial market participants. The primary concern has been that tight labor markets might lead to faster compensation growth and, ultimately, to upward pressure on general inflation. The employment cost index (ECI) has received particularly close attention because many analysts consider it to be one of the best measures of labor cost inflation. Other analysts, however, have questioned whether the ECI and other labor cost measures are useful in inflation forecasting. One reason for doubting the ECI’s inflation forecasting value is that a moderate upward trend in ECI growth over the last three years has, so far, not been matched by a rise in the general inflation rate. Buteconomicanalystsmayhaveotherreasons than inflation forecasting for using the ECI. Detailed information on employment cost trends may help analyze labor market developments and, indirectly, may reflect broader economic trends outside the labor market. In addition, companies may find the ECI useful in C. Alan Garner is an assistant vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Stephen Monto, an assistant economist at the bank, helped prepare the article. This article can be accessed on the bank’s Website at www.kc.frb.org. wage setting and other compensation decisions. Given the high profile that the index has sometimes assumed in the business press and financial markets, it is time to take a closer look at the ECI and evaluate its possible uses. The first section of this article compares the ECI with other labor cost measures and concludes that it is the best measure for many, but not all, purposes. The second section shows that existing studies do not demonstrate a reliable predictive relationship between labor cost inflation and general inflation, suggesting the ECI should be monitored but may not deserve the close attention that it has sometimes received. The third section argues the ECI is quite useful in analyzing broader economic trends, such as the shift in jobs toward the service sector, and in business decisions about employee compensation. The article concludes that the ECI is more usefulforlabormarketanalysisandwagesetting than for general inflation forecasting.