Interest Rate Policy with Expectations of Devaluation
用一个理性预期模型研究北欧国家反复贬值问题，发现小国在资产替代不完全且外汇储备充足时，可通过基于竞争力的利率政策终结贬值循环；政策可信时只需在预期贬值前后调整利率，而完全意外的政策则需持续加息。
The problem of recurrent devaluations in the Nordic countries is dealt with using a simple rational expec tations model. Given imperfect international asset substitutability a nd sufficient foreign exchange reserves, a small open economy can use interest rate policies geared to competitiveness to put an end to re current devaluations. If this policy is known and credible, no intere st rate adjustments are called for, except shortly before and during the expected devaluation phase. In contrast, a completely unanticipat ed interest rate policy requires that the rate of interest be raised continuously as the expected devaluation date is approached. Copyright 1988 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.