Dynamic Formation of Willingness to Pay: An Empirical Specification and Test , The
通过条件价值评估法研究居民对水质改善的支付意愿，发现未来学习机会会显著降低支付意愿，提示福利分析需考虑动态不确定性。
In a static setting, willingness to pay for an environmental improvement is equal to compensating variation. However, in a dynamic setting characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility, and the potential for learning, willingness to pay may also contain an option value. In this paper, we incorporate the dynamic nature of the value formulation process into a study using a contingent valuation method, designed to measure the value local residents assign to a north-central Iowa lake. Our results show that willingness to pay is highly sensitive to the potential for future learning. Respondents offered the opportunity to delay their purchasing decisions until more information became available were willing to pay significantly less for improved water quality than those who faced a now-or-never decision. The results suggest that welfare analysts should take care to accurately represent the potential for future learning.