Demand Uncertainty, Development Timing and Leasehold Land Valuation: Empirical Testing of Real Options in Residential Real Estate Development
构建并检验了一个长期美式看涨期权定价模型，用于评估租赁土地价值。通过香港十个详细案例，发现开发中存在正向且显著的期权溢价（平均+5.274%），且开发商的执行时机符合实物期权模型预测。
This article develops and tests a long‐dated American call option pricing model for valuing development land under leasehold. We analyze and test option values in ten detailed Hong Kong cases involving purchase, holding, converting and developing land. We also test for optimal exercise of long‐dated American calls using processes based on the optimal trigger ratio feature of the perpetual American call option model. Generally, the empirical results confirm presence of a positive and nontrivial option premium (mean +5.274%) in the cases, and that developers appear to delay exercise to the point predicted by the real options model.