Building U.S. Agricultural Exports: One BRIC at a Time
研究了金砖国家收入增长如何改变全球食品需求，并分析了美国蛋白质和饲料作物出口在这些市场的机遇与挑战。
After declining during the recession, U.S. protein exports have started to rebound with the global economy. The strength of the rebound will depend on the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—countries that account for more than 40 percent of the world’s consumers. In recent decades, rising incomes in these countries have created a growing middle class, resulting in one of the most dynamic agricultural trade markets on the globe. As incomes rise, people enrich their diets by eating more proteins. United States agricultural producers have seized these emerging market opportunities by boosting trade with these countries. Forecasts suggest the rising demand for protein in BRIC countries will propel U.S. meat exports in the future. Yet, a closer inspection of historical trade patterns with BRIC countries suggests that U.S. protein exporters may struggle to expand their share of these markets, for two reasons. First, BRIC countries are moving through differing stages of development, which may tilt the balance of food imports and domestic production. And second, Brazil has emerged as a juggernaut in agricul-Jason Hendrson is vice president and Omaha Branch executive at the the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City This article is on the bank’s website at www.KansasCityFed.org. 63 64 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY tural trade with other BRIC countries, dulling the competitive edge of U.S. producers. This article explores the future of BRIC agricultural export markets. The first section describes how rising incomes in BRIC countries are transforming global food demand. The second section investigates how BRIC countries have fed their growing appetite for proteins with a balance of imports and domestic livestock production. The third section explores the future import potential of BRIC countries and the implications for U.S. agricultural exports. The article concludes that, as BRIC countries increasingly try to satisfy their growing demand for proteins with domestic livestock production, the sharpest gains in U.S. exports may not emerge from protein but from feed crops. Yet, even these bright opportunities may be dulled as BRIC countries bolster their own grain production.