Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions
以往研究发现宏观经济新闻对股价影响微弱，本文发现考虑商业周期阶段后，股价与新闻的关系更强，且经济强劲时市场对好消息反应为负，原因是贴现率上升幅度超过预期现金流。
Previous research finds that fundamental macroeconomic news has little effect on stock prices. We show that after allowing for different stages of the business cycle, a stronger relationship between stock prices and news is evident. In addition to stock prices, we examine the effect of real activity news on proxies for expected cash flows and equity discount rates. We find that when the economy is strong the stock market responds negatively to news about higher real economic activity. This negative relation is caused by the larger increase in discount rates relative to expected cash flows.