A Comparison of the Dynamic Properties of Five Nordic Macroeconometric Models: A Critical Note
批评了Lybeck等人对五个北欧宏观计量经济模型的比较研究，指出乘数比较无法判断模型准确性，且模拟中的贬值实验因政策变化不同而不可比。
a recent issue of this Journal, Lybeck et al. (1984) compared the effects of economic policy in five different macroeconometric models from Denmark, Finland and Sweden. The purpose of this exercise is stated as follows: In order for the models to be useful instruments in the formulation of economic policy, policymakers must be able to have some faith in the accuracy of the models. Our sole aim in this study is therefore to try to evaluate whether a clear picture of the effects of the two types of policy [fiscal policy and devaluations] on the economy emerges or whether the models show widely different results; Lybeck et al. (1984), p. 38, italics in original. I do not think that anyone would want to argue with the first part of this statement. However, in this note, I would like to argue, first, that these multiplier comparisons cannot say anything about whether a particular model is accurate or its policy implications are reliable. Second, I show that even if they could clarify these points, the simulations discussed by Lybeck et al. are not comparable. particular, the devaluation experiments are affected by various other policy changes that differ between models. Moreover, in two of the models, mechanisms that are crucial for the outcome of a devaluation may be shown to be inadequately or incorrectly specified.