Uncertain Biomass Shift and Collapse: Implications for Harvest Policy in the Fishery
研究了渔业中生物量转移（一种资源崩溃后被替代物种填补）的不确定性，分析了环境扰动、过度捕捞及两者结合三种原因下的最优捕捞政策，并与无转移风险时的政策对比。
This paper addresses uncertain biomass shifts in renewable resources. A biomass shift occurs when a dominant renewable resource stock collapses and its ecosystem niche is filled by a replacement species which increases in abundance after the initial collapse. This paper develops a bioeconomic model for a fishery subject to random biomass shift. Optimal policy for three causes of biomass shift-environmental perturbation, overfishing, and a combination of these two factors-is derived and compared to optimal policy when the risk of biomass shift is not present. For each cause of biomass shift, the model allows for a valued and non-valued replacement species.