Formation and adaptation of reference prices in grain marketing: an experimental study
通过实验研究生产者参考价格的形成与动态调整机制，发现其受当前市价、历史最高价和价格预期影响，并基于市价与参考价之差做出销售决策。
This study aimed to explore how producers’ reference prices are formed and adapt over time, and how they affect marketing decisions. Results indicate that producers focus on three major variables to form their reference prices: the current market price, the highest price to date, and their expectation about price behavior. Further, they update their reference prices during the marketing season mainly in response to changes in current market prices, their own expectations about price behavior, and the general price trend. Finally, our findings suggest that producers’ marketing decisions are based on the spread between current market price and reference price, the general market trend and price expectation.