Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run
发现，自朝鲜战争以来，美国M2货币供应量与价格水平存在长期联系，且M2流通速度具有均值回归特性；基于此构建的通胀动态模型在预测中优于菲利普斯曲线和传统货币主义方法。
A long-run link between money and prices is evident for the United States since the Korean War if the M2 measure of money is used and the velocity of M2 (V2) is modeled as a mean-reverting series. This link between M2 and prices is the basis for a dynamic model of inflation that compares favorably in forecasting exercises with Phillips-curve and more typical monetarist approaches. The behavior of V2 is examined from 1870 to the present, providing a basis for reconsidering previous findings that V2 follows a random walk. Copyright 1991 by American Economic Association.