Revising Water Pollution Standards in an Uncertain World
研究了1976年美国国家水质委员会在不确定条件下修订水污染标准的问题，通过决策树评估点源和非点源控制成本，发现获取更多信息可显著降低治污成本。
Congress formed the National Commission on Water Quality (NCWQ) in 1976 in response to concerns that water pollution standards should be redirected from point sources to better control of nonpoint sources. This paper examines the problem of decision making under uncertainty by evaluating the results of each branch of a decision tree. Probability estimates that events, or states of nature, will occur and the expected value of alternative actions compare existing federal standards from point sources and urban runoff sources to identify least-cost regulations. The finding that a high probability of certain events occurring is necessary to minimize costs indicates that additional information and the incorporation of that information into the decision making process could significantly lower the costs of water pollution control. 14 references, 4 figures, 6 tables. (DCK)