Educational attainment, unemployment, and wage inflation
研究了教育程度提高对工资通胀和均衡失业率的影响，发现调整年龄和教育结构的失业指标在菲利普斯曲线中表现良好，但未显著改善工资预测或改变均衡失业率估计；分教育程度模型显示大学学历者面临更陡的劳动市场紧张与工资增长权衡。
We investigate the impact of rising educational attainment on wage inflation and the equilibrium (non-inflationary) rate of unemployment. Rising educational attainment may reduce wage pressures by shifting the composition of the labor force towards groups with lower equilibrium unemployment rates, or it may increase wage pressures through increased reliance on groups whose wages are relatively responsive to changes in unemployment. A measure of aggregate unemployment adjusted for changes in the age and education structure of the labor force performs well in Phillips curve estimates of the wage inflation process but does not substantially improve the ability to forecast wages or materially alter the estimates of the equilibrium unemployment rate. We also estimate models of wage inflation that are disaggregated by educational attainment and find that college-educated workers face a sharper trade-off between labor market tightness and wage growth than do other groups. We find that forecasts of wage inflation derived from the disaggregated relationships perform better than those from aggregate wage equations.