弱势美元会引发通胀吗

Is a weak dollar inflationary

Econometric Reviews · 1995
被引 0
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究美元汇率变动与美国通胀之间的实证关系,发现美元贬值虽会推高通胀但幅度很小,并探讨了原因,对关注汇率与通胀关系的学者和政策制定者有参考价值。

Abstract

Since the early seventies, the U.S. dollar has been allowed to float freely, and its exchange rates have become extremely volatile and difficult to explain, let alone to predict. The dollar's erratic behavior has stimulated a lively debate in academic and policy circles over what the government's response should be. One of the major questions that must be answered before a response can be contemplated is whether dollar exchange rate changes influence U.S. inflation. ; This article examines the empirical relationship between dollar movements and inflation in the United States. Historical evidence suggests that a falling dollar causes inflation to increase but by a very small amount, and the author discusses why the inflationary effects of a weak dollar are so small. One possible answer is that when the dollar depreciates, sellers of traded goods may choose not to increase prices in response but to reduce their profit margins instead.

美元汇率通货膨胀汇率传递效应利润压缩