THE EFFECT OF AN EARLY CAREER RECESSION ON SCHOOLING AND LIFETIME WELFARE
使用定向搜索均衡模型评估年轻时经历经济衰退对终身福利和劳动力市场的影响，发现1981-82年衰退导致终身福利损失1.6%-2.3%，并分析了教育决策的内生性作用。
Abstract This article evaluates the lifetime welfare and labor market consequences of experiencing a recession during youth, using a directed search equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks. In particular, the model allows for endogenous schooling decisions over the business cycles. The counterfactual analysis shows that experiencing the 1981–82 recession in youth causes a 1.6%–2.3% loss in lifetime welfare. Endogenizing the schooling decision avoids overestimation of welfare loss because of the selection effect and the human capital effect. I also decompose lifetime wage changes into different channels: changes from schooling, work experience, and job mobility.