Cash for Corollas: When Stimulus Reduces Spending
利用断点回归设计，研究发现2009年“旧车换现金”计划中超过一半补贴流向了原本就会购车的家庭，且燃油效率限制使消费者转向更便宜的车型，最终导致新车总支出减少50亿美元。
The 2009 Cash for Clunkers program aimed to stimulate consumer spending in the new automobile industry, which experienced disproportionate reductions in demand and employment during the Great Recession. Exploiting program eligibility criteria in a regression discontinuity design, we show more than half of the subsidies went to households who would have purchased during the two-month program anyway; the rest accelerated sales by no more than eight months. Moreover, the program's fuel efficiency restrictions shifted purchases toward vehicles that cost on average $7,600 less. Thus, we estimate on net the $3 billion program reduced total new vehicle spending by $5 billion.