The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited
研究发现，当家庭面临不可保收入风险和借贷约束时，预防性储蓄效应会削弱其对未来利率变化的反应，从而大幅降低前瞻指引刺激经济的效果。
In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance. We present a model in which the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets. When agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints, a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates. As a consequence, forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy.