Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations
估计了四种政策不确定性（政府支出、税收变化、公共债务和货币政策）对美国经济的影响，发现政府债务不确定性对产出、消费和投资有显著且持久的影响，政策不确定性解释了约25%的产出波动。
Summary This paper estimates the impact on the US economy of four types of uncertainty about (i) government spending, (ii) tax changes, (iii) public debt, and (iv) monetary policy. Uncertainty about government debt has a large and persistent effect on output, consumption, investment, consumer confidence, and business confidence. Uncertainty about tax changes also has detrimental consequences for real activity but the effect of spending and monetary policy uncertainty appears to be small. About 25 % of output fluctuations are accounted for by policy uncertainty, with government debt making the largest contribution at longer horizons.