GLOBALIZATION, TRADE, AND WAGES: WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT CHINA?
利用新整理的数据，研究20世纪初中国开放贸易后，出口变得更依赖非熟练劳动力，进口则更依赖熟练劳动力。通过双重差分估计和动态一般均衡模型模拟，发现第一次世界大战显著提升了中国出口，降低了技能溢价。
Newly assembled data show that, as China opened up to global trade during the early 20th century, its exports became more unskilled‐intensive and its imports more skill‐intensive. Difference‐in‐differences estimates show that World War I dramatically increased Chinese exports, raising the relative demand for the unskilled workers producing them. When the war ended, trade costs declined and China's terms of trade increased, further stimulating exports. A simulation of a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrates that the effects of the war on China's terms of trade produces a decline in the skill premium similar to what China experienced in the 1920s.