Were price changes during the Great Depression anticipated?
重新评估1930年代价格大幅波动是否被预期，发现货币、财政和汇率政策的不确定性导致当时经济主体预期的价格变化率与时间序列通胀预测存在系统性差异，名义利率和事后通胀的分析支持这一观点，表明大萧条早期的通缩和随后的通胀在很大程度上都未被预期。
This paper reassesses whether the large swings in prices during the 1930's were anticipated. We argue that uncertainty about monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies induced systematic differences between the rate of price change expected by economic agents at the time and the time series forecasts of inflation. Our analysis of nominal interest rates and ex post inflation strongly supports this view. In fact. our results suggest that the deflation of the early Depression years and the inflation that followed were both largely unanticipated.