How Will Unemployment Fare Following the Recession
分析经济衰退后失业率的变化趋势，指出与1973-75和1981-82年衰退后快速下降不同，本次衰退可能因劳动力市场变化和系统性银行危机导致失业率缓慢恢复。
rate has risen more than four percentage points. Similar sharp increases in unemployment have occurred in other severe recessions, such as those in 1973-75 and 1981-82. In the aftermath of those severe recessions, the economy rapidly recovered and unemployment quickly declined. Will unemployment behave similarly following this recession? One reason why unemployment may not fall as quickly this time is that the labor market has changed substantively since the early 1980s. In the two recoveries since then, not only did unemployment continue to climb, but it remained persistently high in what have been termed “jobless recoveries. ” To the extent that labor market changes were responsible for these jobless recoveries, unemployment following the current recession may also be slow to recover. A second reason unemployment may not fall quickly this time is that the recession has been coupled with a systemic banking crisis.