The Economics of Rising Stars
分析了一个职业，其中个人表现存在很大不确定性，且过去表现与未来结果相关。均衡时，只有年轻人进入该职业，只有成功者留下。年轻人数量众多，收入远低于当前替代选择；成功罕见但回报丰厚，导致收入分布呈正偏态。
This paper analyzes an occupation in which there is substantial uncertainty about individual performance and past performance is correlated with future outcomes. In equilibrium, only the young enter the occupation and only the successful stay on. The young are numerous and earn incomes well below what their current alternative o ffers; success is rare and rewarded highly. The implied distribution of earnings must have positive skewness. Copyright 1988 by American Economic Association.