The Informational Efficiency of Econometric Model Forecasts
评估了数据资源公司和蔡斯计量经济学公司发布的计量模型预测的信息效率，发现单期预测修正存在显著序列相关，拒绝了效率假说，并分析了替代解释。
The informational efficiency of econometric model forecasts made by Data Resources, Incorporated and Chase Econometrics is evaluated. The criterion tested is an implication of the rational expectations hypothesis. Statistically significant serial correlations are found for several series of one-period forecast revisions, indicating rejection of the efficiency hypothesis. The use of these one-period revisions avoids some problems that have plagued previous tests that employed different efficiency criteria. Alternative explanations of the empirical results are suggested and analyzed.