Using monthly data to predict quarterly output
针对商务部调整实际GDP计算方法，本文更新了一个简单模型，利用月度消费和非农就业数据预测当前季度实际GDP增长率，对经济预测者和政策制定者有用。
Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.