Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
研究发现，消费者对宏观经济的粘性预期能解释微观数据无过度平滑而宏观消费数据却过度平滑的矛盾，且这种有限关注带来的效用损失极小。
To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate “excess smoothness” in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no “excess smoothness.” So standard microfounded models fail to match the macro smoothness facts. We show that the micro and macro evidence are both consistent with a microfounded model where consumers know their personal circumstances but have “sticky expectations” about the macroeconomy. Aggregate consumption sluggishness reflects consumers’ imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of inattention has negligible utility costs because aggregate shocks constitute a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face.