The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany
研究二战后数百万德国被驱逐者涌入西德对本地就业的影响，发现大规模流入显著降低了本地就业，但替代效应高度非线性，仅出现在流入率极高的劳动力市场细分领域。
This article studies the employment effects of one of the largest forced population movements in history, the influx of millions of German expellees to West Germany after World War II. This episode of forced mass migration provides a unique setting to study the causal effects of immigration. Expellees were not selected on the basis of skills or labor market prospects and, as ethnic Germans, were close substitutes to native West Germans. Expellee inflows substantially reduced native employment. The displacement effect was, however, highly nonlinear and limited to labor market segments with very high inflow rates.