ACHIEVING FISCAL BALANCE IN JAPAN*
基于日本微观数据构建大规模世代交叠模型，模拟现行政策下政府债务和养老金基金的未来路径，发现养老金改革、提高消费税和增加女性劳动参与有助于实现财政稳定。
Japan is aging and has the highest government debt‐to‐output ratio among advanced economies. In this article, we build a micro data‐based, large‐scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules. Using existing pension law, current fiscal policy, and medium variants of demographic projections, we produce future paths for government expenditures and tax revenues, with implications for government debt and the public pension fund. Additional pension reform, a higher consumption tax, and higher female labor force participation help achieve fiscal stability.