The Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Local Prevalence of AIDS
研究美国年轻人中，当地艾滋病流行程度如何影响安全套使用需求，发现流行率每增加1%，最敏感群体的安全套使用倾向最高增加50%，且这种反应随时间增强。
The authors investigated how much the local prevalence of AIDS increases the demand for condom use among young adults in the US. Data on condom use during 1984-90 were drawn from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) a study which contains data on approximately 12000 men and women in the US aged 14-21 years in 1979. The 1979 NLSY oversampled Blacks and Hispanics. Analysis found considerable evidence that the use of condoms is quite responsive to the prevalence of AIDS in ones state of residence. That responsiveness has been increasing over time. Cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence is presented which suggests that a 1% increase in the prevalence of AIDS significantly increases the propensity to use a condom up to 50% for the most prevalence-responsive groups. These findings lend support to the existence of a self-limiting incentive effect of epidemics an effect which tends to be ignored in epidemiological theories of the spread of infectious disease.