Expert Systems Development in Small Business: A Managerial Perspective
从小企业管理者的角度，探讨专家系统在小企业开发中的适用性、成本效益及管理问题，帮助判断是否值得投入资源。
A well-researched and well-documented issue in the growth of a business is the transition from an entrepreneurial organization to a professionally managed company (Chandler 1962, Filley and House 1969, Steinmetz 1969, Thain 1969, Greiner 1972, Cooper 1979, Kimberly and Miles 1980, Galbraith 1982, Churchill and Lewis 1983, Hofer and Charan 1984, Robinson et al. 1984, Flamholtz 1986). Recent advances in computer technology may provide solutions that can assist the small business owner or entrepreneur in making the transition from doing to managing. One currently popular application of computer technology is the expert system, a method of applying human knowledge captured in a computer to solve problems that normally require human expertise (Turban 1988, Muller-Boling and Kirchhoff 1991). Expert systems are computer systems that are designed specifically to emulate the reasoning of an expert (Hayes-Roth 1988). They model a specific expert's approach to the solution of a narrowly defined, recurring problem. By nature, these advanced systems can perform no better than the human after whom they are modeled. Expert systems are developed by first identifying an expert who can solve a specific problem, eliciting his or her reasoning processes, and building a computer system that emulates that reasoning. Accordingly, the computer is programmed to solve many problems that arise each business day. The benefits of expert systems for small business have been presented in the literature (Torkzadeh and Rao 1988, Sullivan and Shively 1989, Muller-Boling and Kirchhoff 1991). The primary benefit concerns the opportunity for small business owners to use the computer to delegate many routine decisions to their employees, thus allowing owners to focus on managerial activities (Sullivan and Shively 1989). In large businesses, many problems such as training, enforcing procedures, or monitoring and controlling business activities are handled by overpowering these problems with available staff or by hiring staff with specific abilities. The impact of expert systems in small business, therefore, may be greater than in large business since small firms may not have the luxury of alternative solutions. Much of the expert system research has focused on the technical aspects of expert system development (Davis, Buchanan, and Shortliffe 1977; Hayes-Roth, Waterman, and Lenat 1983; Jackson and Lefreve 1984; Smith 1984; Fikes and Kehler 1985; Hayes-Roth 1985; Myer 1986; Weitzel and Kerschberg 1989) or on the general applications of expert systems in small businesses (Torkzadeh and Rao 1988, Sullivan and Shively 1989, Muller-Boling and Kirchhoff 1991). These studies give little attention to the difficulties involved in developing expert systems or the impact of these systems on the small business owner's activities. Torkzadeh and Rao (1988) and Sullivan and Shively (1989) suggest that expert systems can handle a wide variety of management problems without regard to problem sophistication. They also emphasize the advantages of expert systems without fully exploring several critical development considerations. Although expert systems can benefit the small business owner, they can also waste time and money, which are usually scarce resources for the small business owner. Two issues not included in the current literature need to be addressed in considering the use of expert systems in small business. First, not all types of expert systems are appropriate for small business. A categorization scheme presents the different types of expert systems based on the characteristics of the problems being solved. These categories are then related to estimates of time and money needed to develop potential applications. Second, many small business owners cannot tolerate the use of expert systems in their business. Several managerial issues are presented as critical considerations that must be addressed before the expert system development process begins. …