Transfer Scenarios and Projections of Poverty into the 1980s
提出一种方法，明确考虑转移支付增长、目标效率及对贫困者劳动供给的影响，预测1980年代贫困率变化，指出若不改变劳动力市场结构，要么转移支付持续增长，要么减贫效果有限。
Previous projections of poverty have had to make implicit assumptions, often unstated, about the future growth of transfers, the target efficiency of these transfers, and their impact on the labor supply of the poor. This paper develops a methodology that takes these factors explicitly into account. Projections of the proportion of households with earnings below the poverty line (the earnings poor) and the proportion with total incomes below the poverty line (the posttransfer poor) are made. These projections suggest that unless steps are taken to change the structure of labor markets facing the poor, the 1980s will either be another decade of growing real transfers per capita or a time during which there will be limited reductions in poverty.