Investment and Growth in an Econometric Model of the United States
利用年度增长模型的供给面，量化了朝鲜战争以来美国经济的自然增长路径，并预测到世纪末，重点评估了企业固定资本形成对生产率增长的贡献及资本深化对增长的潜力。
In its complete form, our Annual Growth Model is a synthesis of Keynesian and neoclassical determinants of actual and potential growth and of prices, production, and employment. In this paper we utilize only the supply side of the model to provide new quantitative estimates of the natural growth path of the U.S. economy since the Korean War and corresponding projections to the end of the century. The past and future contributions of business-fixed capital formation to productivity growth are quantified, and we assess the prospects for augmenting future growth through capital deepening. The complete model includes monetary and fiscal determinants of aggregate demand, but since we are abstracting from the demand side in this paper, nothing can be said here about nominal GNP, the price level, or the policy tradeoffs among inflation, unemployment, and growth targets.