FINANCIAL VARIABLES AND THE OUT-OF-SAMPLE FORECASTABILITY OF THE GROWTH RATE OF INDIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
研究了11个金融变量对印度工业生产增长率的样本内和样本外预测能力，发现M0、M1、M2等货币变量在部分预测期有显著效果，但多数结果在考虑数据挖掘后不再显著。
In this paper, we consider the forecasting power, both in- and out-of-sample, of 11 financial variables with respect to the growth rate of Indian industrial production over the monthly out-ofsample period of 2005:4–2011:4, using an in-sample of 1994:1–2005:3. The financial variables used are: M0, M1, M2, M3, lending rate, 3-month Treasury bill rate, term spread, real effective exchange rate, real stock prices, dividend yield and non-food credit growth. We observe that that, at times, in-sample and out-of-sample predictive ability of the financial variables tend to coincide. We find relatively strong evidence of out-of-sample predictability for at least one of the horizons for M0, M1, M2, M3, the lending rate and real share price growth rate. The term-spread and dividend yield are added to the list when weaker versions of the out-of-sample test statistics are considered as well. Given that we consider a large number of financial variables, when we checked the significant results by accounting for data mining across the 11 financial variables, majority of these results ceases to be significant, with only M0, M1 and M2 retaining some of its predictive ability.