Did a boom in money and credit precede east Asia's recent currency crisis?
研究了东亚货币危机前货币和信贷变量的增长情况，发现储备货币在1997年危机前快速增长，但其他指标信号不一，部分指标在1996年中前能预测大幅贬值，但对1997年危机的预测并不一致。
This paper assesses the relationship between money and credit and episodes of sharp depreciation in East Asia by: (i) examining the growth rates of money and credit variables around depreciation episodes; (ii) estimating the impact of money and credit variables on the probability of a sharp depreciation episode using logit models; (iii) evaluating the signals contained in money and credit variables prior to episodes of sharp currency depreciation. ; Reserve money grew rapidly prior to the 1997 currency crisis in East Asia. However, signs of a money or credit boom based on other indicators were mixed. The 1997 episodes differ from East Asia's past experience in a number of ways. Rapid growth in the M2 multiplier and in the ratio of M2 to foreign reserves, positive deviations of reserve money from trend, and declines or sluggish growth in reserve money and in foreign reserves, helped predict episodes of sharp depreciation up to mid-1996. While some of these indicators pointed to the possibility of a crisis in some of the countries prior to the 1997 episodes, they did not consistently predict the sharp depreciations that occurred.