Heterogeneous Income Profiles and Lifecycle Bias in Intergenerational Mobility Estimation
利用瑞典长期收入数据，研究发现代际流动性估计中因使用短期收入快照导致的生命周期偏差很大，并检验了现有减少偏差的策略，发现经典模型无法完全消除偏差，但扩展模型可进一步降低偏差。
Abstract Using short snapshots of income in intergenerational mobility estimation causes "lifecycle bias" if the snapshots cannot mimic lifetime outcomes. We use uniquely long series of Swedish income data to show that this bias is large and to examine current strategies to reduce it. We confirm that lifecycle bias is smallest when incomes are measured around midlife, a central implication from a widely adopted generalization of the classical errors-in-variables model. However, the model cannot predict the ideal age of measurement or eliminate lifecycle bias at other ages. We illustrate how extensions of this model can reduce the bias further.