An Econometric Test of Structural Change in the Demographic Transition
应用Brown、Durbin和Evans的结构性变化检验，分析瑞典、挪威、英格兰和威尔士、芬兰的人口转变年度数据，发现结构性变化模型优于传统模型，揭示了生育率对疾病和死亡率下降的供给响应以及对孩子死亡的需方响应。
"The structural change model of the demographic transition developed by Easterlin and others is explored empirically by applying the Brown, Durbin and Evans test of structural change to annual data from the transitions of Sweden, Norway, England and Wales, and Finland. The evidence strongly supports the structural change model over traditional models (based on gradual changes in explanatory variables), indicating a supply response of fertility to declining illness and death during the early stages of transition, and a demand response to the death of children during the latter stages, when families are likely to have achieved desired size."