Money and Prices in Sweden, 1871-1970. A Comment
评论Wells对瑞典货币与价格因果关系的分析，基于固定与浮动汇率制度区分，指出固定汇率下国际因素主导，浮动汇率下国内货币政策决定货币供给并影响价格。
This comment arises from Wells' (1983) analysis of the causal relationship between money and prices in Sweden in this issue of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Wells uses data on the Swedish money stock and the Swedish price level compiled by me and my 1976 article as the starting points for his discussion. In that article, I examined the behavior of money and prices in Sweden during the period 1732-1972; see Jonung (1976). My brief discussion of the line of causation between money and prices is based on a distinction between periods of fixed and periods of flexible exchange rates. Under fixed exchange rates, the purchasing power parity theory and its modem representation, the monetary approach to the balance of payments, states that for a small open economy like Sweden's, domestic inflation and domestic monetary growth are determined by international price and monetary developments.1 Under regimes of flexible exchange rates, I suggest, on the basis of the historical record, that the Swedish money stock has been determined by the conduct of domestic monetary policy. Consequently, the rate of change of domestic prices has been influenced by the growth rate of the money stock. There are two major approaches to the analysis of the line of causation between money and prices. One approach is based on a close examination of historical and institutional circumstances concerning the money supply process and the behavior of the monetary authorities. The prime example of this approach is Friedman & Schwartz's (1963) study of US monetary history. My discussion of the causal link between money and prices in Sweden rests on this methodology. The other approach relies on statistical techniques developed by Granger (1969) and Sims (1972), where timing relationships in observed data are